In my last
tip, I discussed the basic principles of implied odds. As you’ll recall, your
implied odds are the total amount you can win in a given pot, divided by the
number of poker chips you’re putting into the pot. Put another way, implied
odds calculate future action and betting that may occur in a hand, while pot
odds focus on the here and now of the hand.
Now that
you have an understanding of the differences between pot odds and implied odds,
it’s time to look at some of the more advanced concepts involved with implied
odds, along with some common mistakes that many poker players make by misapplying
these rules.
Estimating Implied Odds – One of the most common errors that
many players – both amateur and professional alike - make is to overestimate their
implied odds in a given hand. For example, in season one of Poker After Dark, a
certain well-known pro called a very strong bet of mine on the turn with
nothing more than a gut-shot straight draw. He reasoned that I would never put
him on a straight if he hit his hand and that I would pay him off on the river
if he caught his four-outer.
While he
may have been right, in theory, he still made a huge mistake to call me in this
hand because even if all of my chips ended up in the center, he still wasn’t
getting the right odds to call.
Let’s look
at the numbers to see what I mean. My opponent was looking for four cards to
make his hand on the river, which means he only had about a 9 percent chance of
hitting. This means he needed implied of odds of at least 9-1 to justify his
call, which based on the size of my remaining chip stack, he wasn’t even close
to getting.
Generally
speaking, implied odds aren’t going to help you if you’re looking for four or
five outs to make your hand. Ideally, you should have nine or more cards that
can make your hand before you start worrying about the implied odds in a hand.
Miscalculating Implied Odds – One of the most common mistakes I
see is when players think they’re getting implied odds, but really aren’t. For
example, let’s say two players are involved in a poker hand and one of them
pushes all-in on the turn. The second player in the hand is on either a flush
or a straight draw, and makes the call.
If the pot
odds are correct here, it’s a good call. However, if the pot odds are bad, so
is the call because there aren’t any more chips going into the pot on the
river, which means the implied odds in this hand simply don’t exist. By failing
to make the distinction between pot odds and implied odds, many inexperienced
players end up putting their chips at risk more often than they should.
Telegraphing Your Hand – There are many times when players
will properly calculate their implied odds in a hand and make a good call only
to find they can’t get paid off when they hit their hands. Why you ask? The
answer is simple: they telegraph their hand.
There’s
nothing wrong with taking your time when you’re faced with a big decision in a
hand. Just remember though, the longer you take to determine what you’re going
to do, the more information you may be giving your opponent about your cards.
Let’s say you took your time calling on the flop and then lead out after a
flush card comes on the turn. Chances are your opponent will drop his hand
assuming – probably rightly – that you just made your flush.
If your
play in a hand looks obvious, it probably is, which means the implied odds you
thought you had after the flop probably never even existed in the first place.
In a practical sense, this means that you should factor your opponent’s style
into your equation when you’re thinking about your implied odds in a hand. If
he’s loose and a gambler, your odds are going to be better than if he’s tight
and solid.
Protecting Your Hand - On the flip side of the coin, you
should learn to protect your big hands against opponents who may be drawing
against you. Limit your bets to about half the size of the pot to make sure
you’re not giving them the right odds to call. If they do call and a scare card
hits the board, you can still negate their implied odds by checking your hand
down or letting it go if your opponent leads out with a bet.
Beware of Negative Implied Odds – This is one of the harder – and
most important – concepts to grasp. Negative implied odds mean that you need to
be worried about hitting your hand and still paying off an opponent who hit a
better hand against you. If you bet out after making your Jack-high flush and
your opponent raises behind you, you may have to pay him off even if you think
he’s holding a better flush. One way to handle this situation and to limit your
potential losses is to think of the total pot as being worth a little less than
it actually is before you consider making your call. If the odds don’t add up,
proceed with caution.
Learning
the nuances of implied odds takes time and practice, but in the long run,
mastering this part of the poker game is worth the effort. Learn to start thinking
about what may possibly happen on later streets in a hand before you commit to
any action early on and you’ll be well on your way to the next level.
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